War in the Middle East could seriously affect Thai tourism this year, with a 25% decline from the 2026 target being the worst-case scenario if the fighting extends beyond three months.

The war that has shut Mideast airspace has hit European markets, caretaker tourism and sports minister Artthakorn Sirilatthayakorn said on Thursday after talks with Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) officials.

In the short term, the war has affected those whose flights are connected through Middle Eastern hubs, and might also hit travellers’ confidence in taking long-haul trips to Thailand.

Surging costs for airlines would also have an impact on airfares, as fuel typically accounts for 25% of a carrier’s operating expenses.

According to a forecast by the TAT, the worst‑case scenario would involve a decrease of 25% to between 27 million and 29 million foreign visitors, from the 2026 target of 36.7 million.

If the war ends within three months, the agency sees an 18% decline to 30–31 million.

And if tensions subside in two to four weeks, there would be a minimal impact of only 2%.

The TAT is now diversifying its promotional efforts into medium- and short-haul travellers.