Middle Eastern markets, particularly Israeli arrivals, have been hit the hardest by the Gulf war, with more than 120,000 airline seats lost, while the US is expected to be the only long-haul market still solid in the coming months, according to the Thai Hotels Association (THA).
THA president Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun said even though occupancy rates for the Easter holiday this week remain unchanged, as European guests already booked them and travelled as planned, some were required to reroute their flights.
Hotel operators are more concerned about the period after the holiday, as new bookings are slow due to surging airfares, with spikes of up to 200% on some routes, as traffic sags during the off‑peak season, he noted.
Destinations that mainly target Israeli tourists such as Koh Phangan have been directly affected by their absence, said Mr Thienprasit.
The situation in the United Arab Emirates also remains fragile, with alerts issued 2-3 times daily, while schools have begun switching to distance learning.
Coupled with a 50% reduction in seat capacity by the three main airlines -- Etihad, Emirates and Qatar Airways -- markets from this region recorded a significant decline.
In northern Thailand, hazardous PM2.5 levels scared off travellers, resulting in Songkran bookings of only 50-60%, compared with 100% achieved in previous years.
He said domestic tourists are worried about rising energy prices, which have directly affected their travel decisions during the Songkran period.
"Forward bookings nationwide in the second quarter have dropped by 20% year‑on‑year. For example, hotels in the East reported a decline of 10-15% as guests are concerned about rising travel costs," said Mr Thienprasit.
Among all long‑haul markets, the US remains the strongest, as both leisure and corporate groups have not cancelled their trips.
He said the crisis prompted hoteliers to adjust their strategies, including offering more flexible booking and cancellation options for guests.
Hotel operators have pivoted towards the corporate segment and markets unaffected by flight disruptions, such as the US, Asia, the Nordic countries, Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States nations.
Mr Thienprasit said the THA will ask the new administration to continue to postpone the 300‑baht tourist tax collection as travel costs have escalated.
Some provinces are registering fewer bookings for government meetings, such as hotels in Nakhon Nayok, and he pushed for the government to accelerate state spending to support hotels' cash flow.
As of March 3, the Tourism Authority of Thailand forecast a base‑case scenario of a 1-3 month Gulf war resulting in foreign arrivals of 30 million, down 18% from the target of 36.7 million.
