RECAP: Asian shares remained under pressure yesterday amid dimming hopes for a swift end to the Middle East conflict, though reports that Oman and Iran were drafting terms for reopening the Strait of Hormuz offered some respite. Volumes were thin with some markets closed for the Good Friday holiday.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,432.57 and 1,477.96 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,454.00, up 0.5% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 54.74 billion baht.
Brokerage firms were net buyers of 4.41 billion baht, followed by foreign investors at 1.24 billion. Institutional investors were net sellers of 3.02 billion baht, followed by retail investors at 2.53 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: US President Donald Trump issued a renewed threat to "obliterate" Iran's energy infrastructure, specifically targeting power plants and Kharg Island, if Tehran does not accept a peace proposal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran said Washington's demands were "maximalist and irrational" and denied any negotiations were under way on a ceasefire to end the war in the Middle East within two to three weeks as Trump had indicated in a speech to the American public.
Iran and Oman are drafting a protocol to regulate vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz, with the UAE also signalling readiness to support security measures. This de-escalates geopolitical fears and risks of a global oil supply disruption.
Global aluminium prices are expected to rise after Alba (Aluminium Bahrain), operator of the world's largest smelter, was targeted by Iranian retaliatory strikes.
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said he sees US inflation expectations as grounded despite rising energy prices, so higher interest rates are not needed yet.
Euro zone inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% in March from 1.9% in February, driven largely by a sharp rebound in energy prices, according to preliminary estimates.
Europe could face recession if the Iran conflict drags on and oil prices jump over $150 per barrel, ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras said on Wednesday.
The US trade deficit widened in February, rising 4.9% to $57.3 billion, as a rebound in imports offset strong growth in exports.
The US consumer confidence Index inched up in March, rising 0.8 points to 91.8, the Conference Board said. The reading was higher than the forecast of 87.8.
Microsoft said it would invest $10 billion in Japan between 2026 and 2029 to expand AI infrastructure and strengthen cybersecurity cooperation.
SpaceX has filed for an initial public offering, bringing Elon Musk's rocket maker closer to what could be the biggest public offering in history, giving the company a valuation of $1.75 trillion.
Thailand's new 35-member cabinet is expected to be sworn in on April 6, with the official policy statement to Parliament scheduled for April 7–9.
Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said Thailand has reached an agreement with Iran to ensure safe passage for Thai-flagged tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, offering relief for Thailand's energy supply chain.
The Ministry of Finance plans to cut the diesel tax by 1.00 baht a litre for 30 days starting on April 6, while an overhaul of refinery margins and wholesale pricing is expected to bring further relief at the pumps.
Diesel prices were raised four times this week, by a total of 14.80 baht, reaching 47.74 baht a litre -- 60% higher than on Feb 28, the day Israel and the US started bombing Iran.
The Ministry of Finance will propose increasing loan guarantees for the overstretched state Oil Fuel Fund to 150 billion baht from 40 billion, helping it cover the soaring cost of fuel subsidies.
Bank of Thailand governor Vitai Ratanakorn said there was no need for a drastic policy adjustment now, despite oil-driven inflation risk. "An immediate rate hike would hurt demand and would not help address the problem," he said.
After 11 months of negative readings, Thailand's inflation rate for March is expected to be significantly affected by rising global oil prices, but inflationary pressure remains contained for now, the Ministry of Commerce said on Friday.
The government is preparing to launch the "Thai Help Thai Plus" relief programme, merging the "Half-and-Half Plus" scheme with state welfare benefits, starting in May.
The Ministry of Energy says it will freeze electricity bills at 3.88 baht per unit, overriding an increase of 1.8% to 3.95 baht for the May-August period approved by the Energy Regulatory Commission.
The ratio of household debt to GDP in Thailand stood at 86.7% by the end of the fourth quarter of 2025, up slightly from the revised figure of 86.4% at the end of the previous quarter, central bank data showed.
Thailand's economy is expected to grow by just 1.2% to 1.6% this year, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking said, down from an earlier forecast of 1.6% to 2.0%. It raised its inflation projection to 2–3% from 0.2-0.7%, signalling heightened stagflation risks.
Microsoft said it plans to invest another $1 billion in Thailand over the next two years in cloud services and AI infrastructure over the next two years.
Thai food exports are projected to decline by 7.3% to 1.4 trillion baht this year, possibly hitting a 5-year low, due to Middle East conflict, said the National Food Institute.
KEX Express, J&T Express Thailand and Flash Express raised delivery fees by 3 baht per parcel, effective April 1, due to soaring fuel prices. Thailand Post followed with a similar increase for EMS parcel delivery, starting on April 16.
The Chinese EV maker Xpeng is studying whether to establish a manufacturing plant in Thailand to support its export market.
The tourism industry is calling for urgent support measures after visitor numbers fell by about 30% in the first month following the start of the Middle East war. Arrivals dipped 6.7% in the week ending March 27 from the week before, although flight frequencies from the Mideast are increasing.
COMING UP: On Monday, the US releases services PMI and Spain reports unemployment. On Tuesday, Japan announces household spending, Europe and the UK announces PMI updates and the US reports durable goods orders. On Wednesday, New Zealand decides on interest rates and the US releases oil inventories and consumer credit figures. On Thursday, the US announces preliminary Q1 GDP and core personal consumption expenditures, while Germany reports trade figures. On Friday, China releases consumer and producer prices. Locally, the SET on Friday will discuss the March trading summary.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Asia Plus Securities views the government's plans to restructure ex-refinery oil pricing as a positive step to ease living costs. This would be supportive for consumer and tourism-related stocks, as lower energy costs could boost spending and margins. Top picks are BJC, CBG, CPALL, CPAXT, ERW, CENTEL, MINT and AOT.
InnovestX Securities expects positive momentum next week from the government's upcoming policy statement to parliament, backed by a full mandate to roll out cost-of-living relief measures, which could support domestic sentiment. However, downside risks remain from Middle East tensions. Trading activity on the SET is also likely to thin ahead of the Songkran holidays, potentially leading to heightened volatility. Top picks are PTT, CHG and DIF.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Innovestx Securities sees support at 1,415 points and resistance at 1,490. ASL Securities sees support at 1,440 and resistance at 1,490.
