Dealing with crises is not the responsibility of an individual or the government alone -- it requires a collective effort as new crises often arise before existing ones have been fully resolved, says an analyst from Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI).
According to Nonarit Bisonyabut, a TDRI research fellow, crises are occurring more frequently than in the past, when they appeared roughly once a decade. This glut of crises calls for everyone to work together to address them, he said.
The Middle East conflict will only end once the Strait of Hormuz can be safely reopened for shipping, even if retaliatory exchanges between Iran and Israel continue, said Mr Nonarit.
However, even if the strait is reopened and ships can transit safely, it will take time for oil and gas supplies in the region to return to normal, he noted.
Oil supply flows may take around one month to normalise, while gas supplies could take roughly a year to recover, said Mr Nonarit, meaning energy prices are likely to remain elevated for some time.
The increasing frequency of crises allows less time for recovery, he said.
After Covid, the trade war, floods and earthquakes, and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have concerned governments.
Thailand now faces greater constraints, as the policy interest rate is already low and the fiscal base is not as strong as in the past, said Mr Nonarit.
"This means everyone in the country must work together to overcome the crisis," he said.
For example, the agricultural sector is emphasising the importance of cooperation between communities. During floods or droughts, certain communities want to designate areas as water retention zones or reservoirs to address supply issues, said Mr Nonarit.
In the industrial sector, Thais must accept the country has entered a new era in which people need better skills, such as artificial intelligence and digital capabilities. The government should help the workforce develop in line with these trends, he said.
Thailand also needs to make better use of foreign investment flowing into the country. In the past, when Japanese capital invested in Thailand, Thai industries were able to integrate more easily by becoming part of Japanese supply chains.
However, current foreign investment in Thailand, whether in data centres or from China, does not seek to connect with domestic industries to the same extent.
The question is how Thai small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and workers can be better linked to these foreign investors, said Mr Nonarit.
In addition, new businesses are finding it difficult to emerge because markets remain closed and competition is handcuffed by cumbersome regulations that need to be removed, he said.
Competition laws must be fairly enforced to prevent the abuse of market power that suppresses competition.
The government's role is to act as an enabler, while "frontline players" (farmers, workers, and the industrial sector) upgrade their skills and SMEs must connect with Chinese businesses and data centre investments, noted Mr Nonarit.
LEADING BY EXAMPLE
Chittawan Chanagul, a lecturer in economics at Kasetsart University, said energy prices in Asia, including Thailand, remain significantly lower than in Europe. In Europe, energy prices have doubled compared with pre-crisis levels, while in Asia they have risen by around 80%.
European policy does not favour energy subsidies, instead encouraging people to use public transport.
For Thailand, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul should use the next two months as an opportunity to ride public transport to better understand people's experiences and problems within the transit system, she said.
If the government wants to keep domestic retail oil prices close to pre-crisis levels, it needs to allocate at least 150 billion baht in subsidies, though this would create economic distortions as no one knows when the oil shock will end, said Ms Chittawan.
Instead, the government should restructure the tax framework for major energy companies, which enjoy substantial tax privileges such as investment promotion and an eight-year corporate income tax exemption from the start of revenue generation, she said.
Without such tax reductions, the government could collect more revenue to provide greater assistance to people facing hardships.
In Norway, energy companies are taxed at rates as high as 78%, as the sector is considered highly profitable, said Ms Chittawan.
In addition, she said the government should cut unnecessary expenditures, such as food budgets for both members of parliament (MPs) and senators, as well as budgets for MP assistants, which may not be essential at this time.
Eliminating budgets for MP assistants alone could save 1.2 billion baht per year.
Thailand should follow the example of Pakistan, where MPs and cabinet ministers agreed to forgo their salaries for two months, said Ms Chittawan.
