Business leaders and analysts gave a lukewarm welcome to the two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, saying the proposed conditions of the truce seem difficult for both sides to agree to, while significant uncertainties remain, particularly ahead of their Islamabad talks on April 10.
Wikij Tirawannarat, senior vice-president of Bualuang Securities, said that even though the 10-point proposal from Iran is the first such plan agreed by both sides, it does not secure an end to the Middle East conflict.
The proposal requires Washington to accept Iran's uranium enrichment programme and the lifting of all sanctions. Tehran said the plan would also require Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz, the withdrawal of the US military from the Middle East, an end to attacks on Iran and its allies, as well as the release of frozen Iranian assets.
Another development is Russia and China's veto of a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution aimed at protecting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed document urged nations with interests in the strait's commercial routes to "coordinate their defensive efforts" to safeguard navigation and maintain the strait's openness.
"The conditions of the truce seem difficult for the US to truly accept, making it too good to be true for both sides to actually cease the war," said Mr Wikij.
"However, we shouldn't give up hope that the conflict will end and must keep an eye on what will happen over the next two to three weeks."
OIL PRICE RETREAT
Pathompol Taechanop, vice-president of the research department at Krungthai XSpring Securities, said the oil price has retreated sharply, falling 15% to below US$100 per barrel after the ceasefire agreement was announced.
West Texas crude was quoted at $94.75 per barrel in the early afternoon Wednesday, down 16.1% from the previous session, as Brent plunged 15% to $92.85.
However, the market still awaits discussions on Friday in Pakistan, which acts as a key diplomatic intermediary between the US and Iran, when delegations are set to hold talks aimed at reaching a lasting settlement of disputes, Mr Pathompol said.
"Non-Gulf of Arabia oil producers pumped more oil before the truce was announced. Thus, oil is expected to trade below $100 over the next two weeks, given the availability of supply in the market and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for oil shipments," he added.
POTENTIAL EXPORT GAINS
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporter Association, said the situation remains uncertain because no one yet knows whether the US and Iran will reach an agreement and if the Strait of Hormuz will permanently reopen.
"Typically, it takes about two weeks for shipments to travel from Thailand to the region," he said.
He added that successful negotiations could be a great development for the whole world.
"The current two-week ceasefire has improved market sentiment," he said, expecting a possible decrease in rice prices in the coming days.
Mr Chookiat hopes that, if the situation improves and the Strait of Hormuz is permanently reopened, Thai exporters would be able to resume rice shipments to the Middle East, particularly Iraq, as early as the end of this month.
Iraq, the largest importer of Thai rice by volume, purchased about 1 million tonnes valued at $426.8 million in 2025, according to the Commerce Ministry.
He also expressed concern over rising prices of Thai rice, driven by increased logistics and packaging costs amid global supply chain disruptions. This makes Thai rice less competitive than that of Vietnam and India.
For example, Thailand's white rice price has risen from $360 to $410 a tonne, while the price of Vietnam's rice has increased from $350–355 to $370 a tonne, according to Mr Chookiat.
