Thailand’s Ministry of Finance lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.0%, citing the impact of the war in the Middle East, and said government measures would provide some support to activity.
Exports, a key growth driver, are now expected to rise 6.2% this year, up from a 1.0% increase projected in January, Vinit Visessuvanapoom, head of the ministry’s Fiscal Policy Office, told a press briefing.
Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy grew 2.4% last year, lagging regional peers. Foreign tourist arrivals are forecast at 33.5 million for 2026, down from a previous estimate of 35.5 million.
Thailand received nearly 40 million visitors in 2019, before the coronavirus (Covid) pandemic.
The ministry expects headline inflation of 3.0% this year, versus a prior forecast of 0.3%. The central bank’s target range is between 1% and 3%.
