RECAP: Emerging Asian markets fell on Friday as surging oil prices and limited progress in US-Iran peace negotiations heightened concerns over inflation and economic uncertainty. As well, the Trump-Xi summit produced little news to excite investors.
The Thai market fell on profit taking, following speculative buying earlier in the week, as the Beijing summit did not yield "breakthrough" outcomes.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,481.95 and 1,540.07 points this week, before closing on Friday at 1,517.95, up 1.2% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 66.4 billion baht.
Foreign investors were net buyers of 9.89 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 4.79 billion. Institutional investors were net sellers of 11.25 billion baht, followed by retail investors at 3.43 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: US President Donald Trump said China had agreed to purchase 200 Boeing aircraft, while Washington approved the purchase by 10 Chinese tech firms, including Alibaba and Tencent, of advanced H200 AI chips from Nvidia, following Thursday's Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.
Trump branded Iran's terms for ending the Middle East war "totally unacceptable", raising the possibility of fresh conflict and sending oil prices sharply higher.
The US Senate confirmed Trump nominee Kevin Warsh as the next head of the Federal Reserve, succeeding Jerome Powell, whose term as chair ended on Friday.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York president John Williams said he did not see a need right now for the central bank to make any change in interest rate policy amid the uncertainty created by the Middle East war.
US inflation in April rose at the fastest rate since May 2023, at 3.8% year-on-year, pushed up by sharp increases in energy costs. The rate was 2.4% before the Mideast war started in February and 3.3% in March.
The US producer price index (PPI) rose more than expected by 6% year-on-year, signalling broad inflationary pressures. Core PPI also topped the forecast, jumping 5.2%.
US business inventories increased by the most in four years in March, rising 0.9% following a 0.4% increase in February, boosted by stocks at wholesalers. Retail sales totalled $757 billion in April, up 4.9% year-on-year.
Chinese consumer prices ticked up in April, rising 1.2% year-on-year, due mainly to higher energy costs. The monthly producer price index rose more than expected by 2.8%, up from 0.5% in March.
Opec has cut its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.17 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.38 million earlier, citing the Iran war. Output from the broader Opec+ group fell 1.74 million bpd in April because of the Strait of Hormuz closure.
US crude and fuel inventories continued to draw down last week as countries around the globe scrambled to fill supply gaps caused by disruptions from the war, the Energy Information Administration said.
The Indonesian rupiah hit a record low of 17,525 per dollar on Tuesday, as it felt the heat from Middle East tensions and seasonal domestic demand for dollars to repay debts and repatriate dividends.
Toyota Motor is planning to invest $2 billion in a new manufacturing facility in Texas, creating 2,000 new jobs.
Honda Motor reported its first annual net loss since becoming a listed company 70 years ago. The Japanese automaker lost $2.7 billion for the year ended March 31, weighed down by $9 billion in restructuring charges and writedowns following a retrenchment of its EV strategy.
Taiwan-based Foxconn, the world's largest contract electronics maker, reported a record first-quarter net profit of US$1.58 billion, a 19% year-on-year rise, due to strong global demand for AI products.
TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, expects the value of the global semiconductor market to exceed $1.5 trillion by 2030, topping its previous forecast by 50%.
The Chinese tech giant Alibaba posted a net profit of 105.9 billion yuan ($15.6 billion) for the year ended March 31, down 18% from a year earlier, reflecting challenges in the domestic economy and an expensive push into AI.
China's Tencent reported a forecast-beating 21% jump in quarterly net profit to 58.1 billion yuan ($8.6 billion), as the video game giant bets big on the booming AI sector.
Thailand's monthly inflation is projected to rise to 4-5% from the current 2.9%, primarily driven by increasing energy costs, Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) grew 18% in the first quarter to 260 billion baht. The government aims to reduce legal hurdles to unlock further FDI and push GDP growth to 3% within 1-2 years, Mr Ekniti said.
The Bank of Thailand has agreed to extend the relaxed loan to value (LTV) criteria for mortgage loans for another year, until June 30, 2027, to support the real estate sector and promote financial stability.
New Bank of Thailand regulations governing fees and interest rates for auto hire-purchase and leasing loans are set to take effect on June 1.
Ten Thai auto industry groups warned on Thursday that the sector is facing a crisis as EV adoption erodes local production, with manufacturers struggling to compete with cheap zero-tariff imports from China and parts makers also losing orders.
The government has ordered urgent action to address mounting problems with electric vehicles (EVs), including defects, service centre closures and steep post-purchase price cuts, Prime Minister's Office Minister Supamas Isarabhakdi said.
The Ministry of Commerce reported a drop in the April Consumer Confidence Index to 50.6, an 8-month low. Sentiment was pressured by a 40-month low in employment confidence, a slow economic recovery and the Mideast war raising energy costs.
The Ministry of Finance is preparing to issue 30 billion baht in savings bonds to offset the budget deficit and promote savings. Bond maturities are now being considered, with details expected in late May.
The Ministry of Transport is moving forward with southern investment projects, including the 630km "Thailand Riviera" coastal road (Chumphon-Songkhla), minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn said.
The Excise Department is reviewing criteria for the government's planned car trade-in incentive programme, including eligibility criteria, used car valuations and vehicle scrapping.
Revenue in the meetings, incentives, conventions and exhibitions (Mice) sector could fall by as much as 25%, or 122 billion baht, if the US-Iran conflict persists until year-end, the Thailand Incentive and Convention Association (Tica) said.
Netflix is strengthening its investment footprint in Thailand's creative economy, saying it invested more than $200 million in Thai content production between 2021 and 2024.
Minor International Plc reported a strong start to 2026, with net profit up 56% year-on-year to 649 million baht, attributed to its diversified global hospitality platform, resilient travel demand and continued focus on cost.
Central Land and Development, a division of Central Group, is investing 730 million baht to launch two community malls in Pattaya and Phuket.
COMING UP: On Monday, China releases industrial production and fixed-asset investment data. On Tuesday, Japan reports GDP growth and the UK releases unemployment data. On Wednesday, the US updates crude inventories, China announces its 5-year loan prime rate, and the UK reports April inflation. On Thursday, the US releases Fed meeting minutes, weekly jobless claims and purchasing managers' index (PMI), while Japan reports trade figures. On Friday, Germany announces GDP data, the UK and Canada report retail sales and the US releases the leading economic indicators.
Locally, the Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX) on Tuesday holds a briefing on its Mini Gold Online Futures product. On Wednesday, the Capital Market Development Fund holds a press briefing.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Asia Plus Securities notes that foreign investors remain net buyers of Thai equities, with inflows of 10 billion baht this week and 24 billion year-to-date, the highest in the region, supported by stronger-than-expected Q1 earnings. It recommends accumulating laggards favoured by foreign funds, including PTT, KBANK, AOT, CPALL, CK, GPSC, BGRIM and CBG.
InnovestX Securities expects some positive catalysts for stocks next week from the Trump-Xi summit, Thai consumer stimulus measures and solid Q1 earnings. Key risks include rising global inflation and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire. Top picks are PTT, CPALL and CPN.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Krungsri Securities sees support at 1,495 points and resistance at 1,535. InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,490 and resistance at 1,560.
