S&P affirms Thailand’s BBB+ credit rating

S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Thailand’s sovereign credit rating at BBB+ with a stable outlook, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday.

The decision reflects confidence in the government’s economic policy, which aims to foster economic growth while strictly maintaining fiscal discipline, Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said.

S&P projects that Thailand’s economy will grow by 2.3% in 2026, following 2.4% rate in 2025, amid pressures from external risks and structural economic constraints.

“The government’s fiscal policy is expected to help mitigate these impacts, while greater political stability will support the continuity of long-term economic policy … and enhance agility in addressing short-term challenges,” it said.

Between 2026 and 2029, real GDP growth is projected to average 2.4%, while GDP per capita is expected to rise from approximately $8,000 in 2024 to $9,100 by 2026 — a trend partly driven by a strengthening Thai baht, according to S&P.

The ratings agency projects that the government’s net debt accumulation will reach 4.2% of GDP in 2026, averaging 3.5% of GDP between 2026 and 2029. Consequently, the net general government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise from approximately 40% at the end of 2025 to 47% by 2029.

Thailand continues to benefit from a robust external financial position, the ratings agency said. The current account balance is projected to be in equilibrium in 2026, before returning to a surplus of between 2.1% and 2.4% of GDP from 2027 onwards — a trend driven by export growth aligned with imports of intermediate goods, alongside the gradual normalisation of energy prices.

Thailand remains a net external creditor with substantial international reserves, both of which are key factors supporting the sovereign credit rating.

Key factors that S&P will monitor include the country’s economic growth relative to its peers, GDP per capita, the trajectory of fiscal policy, and domestic political stability. The latter is crucial for ensuring policy continuity and serves as a potential catalyst for a future upgrade of Thailand’s credit rating, it said.

“The fact that all three major international credit rating agencies — Fitch, Moody’s and S&P — maintain a stable outlook for Thailand reflects their confidence in the government’s economic policy direction,” Mr Ekniti said.

“The government remains committed to driving economic policies that yield tangible results, including promoting investment in new industries, enhancing the nation’s competitiveness, and prioritising fiscal discipline.

“These efforts are aimed at strengthening investor confidence and laying a solid foundation for stable and sustainable economic growth.”