The domestic gold price is expected to hit 60,000 baht per baht-weight early next year as bullion surpassed US$3,800 an ounce to set a fresh record high on Monday, while the baht slid to a two-week low of below 32.20 baht to the dollar, says the Gold Traders Association (GTA).
The domestic price soared 550 baht per baht-weight by midday Monday, bringing the price of gold bars to trade at 58,250 baht. Globally, bullion climbed by as much as 1.4% to an all-time high of $3,812.05 an ounce, boosted by a weaker dollar, as investors weighed a potential US government shutdown.
“Gold prices have risen faster than expected, mainly pushed by a weakening dollar as confidence in the US currency has shrunk and there have been concerns over a potential US government shutdown,” GTA president Jitti Tangsithpakdi told the Bangkok Post.
Central banks all over the world have sold dollars and increased their holdings of gold, causing demand for the safe-haven asset to surge, he added.
The price of gold has soared by 45% this year, setting successive peaks on central bank demand and a resumption of interest-rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. Prices are on track to close out a third consecutive quarterly gain next week, with holdings in bullion-backed exchange-traded funds (ETF) at their highest since 2022.
Banks including Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank have said they expect the rally to extend, pushing the $4,000 level by the second quarter of 2026.
“With two more Fed rate cuts on the cards this year, we are now predicting gold to trade above $3,900 an ounce by the end of the year or potentially hit $4,000 at some points,” Mr Jitti noted.
Locally, the price increase could be slower than global prices as the baht has remained in the appreciation zone at around 32 baht to the greenback. Nonetheless, the GTA foresees domestic prices potentially hitting 60,000 baht early next year, he noted.
Hua Seng Heng has set the gold price target for 2025 at $3,780 an ounce, and it “may go as high as $3,930”.
“Over the medium to long term, gold remains supported by solid fundamentals, including central bank holdings, a weaker dollar, and falling interest rates,” the gold trader said in a research note.
Furthermore, gold remains a safe-haven asset suitable for portfolio diversification. It is naturally limited in quantity and can provide a hedge against inflation, currency depreciation or financial crises, it added.
