The price of gold will be confirmed to be on a long-term downward trend if it fails to stay above US$4,100 per ounce, which could occur this week amid escalating tensions and a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, traders say.
Bullion sank more than 5% to below $4,300 per ounce on Monday, reaching its lowest level of 2026 as the war entered its fourth week and the US and Iran threatened new attacks.
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump gave Iran a two-day deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face bombing of its power plants. Iran countered that it would close the strategic waterway "completely" and target US-linked financial institutions holding government bonds, alongside military bases.
"We are now seeing two major resistances at $4,230 and $4,100 an ounce. If the price slides below the $4,100 range, we could see that gold is entering a long-term downward trend," Siriluck Pakotiprapha, vice‑president of the research department at Hua Seng Heng, told the Bangkok Post.
With the $4,100 level imminent this week, Mrs Siriluck sees the possibility of gold sliding below $4,000 an ounce later in the year.
"Tensions in the Middle East have intensified after Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran on Saturday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants. As Iran vows to strike back, the conflict seems to be dragging on longer than we had anticipated," she noted.
Locally, gold bars have already fallen below 70,000 baht per baht‑weight, trading at 65,000 baht per baht‑weight on Monday afternoon after 66 volatile price adjustments, according to the Gold Traders Association (GTA).
Bullion, the safe‑haven asset used as a hedge against inflation, lost more than 10% last week as the escalating Middle East conflict stoked inflation concerns and expectations of higher global interest rates.
Market pricing for a US Federal Reserve rate hike this year has surged and is now seen as far more likely than a rate cut, with rate futures implying around a 32% chance of a hike by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
GTA president Jitti Tangsithpakdi predicts gold prices could weaken further by $100–200 an ounce, warning investors not to rush into gold trading for speculative purposes.
However, he ruled out the possibility of gold falling below $4,000 an ounce, as bullion remains on an uptrend, with the GTA maintaining its price forecast for 2026 at $6,000 per ounce and 90,000 baht per baht‑weight for gold bars.
