Thailand's rise
Re: "Building an economic backbone", (Business, Oct 30, 2023).
A Great Power is a sovereign state possessing significant economic, military and diplomatic capabilities, exerting considerable influence on regional and global affairs. Professor John Mearsheimer, a renowned expert on Great Power dynamics, emphasises that only a few nations with a critical mass of population and wealth can attain this status.
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the US has been the world's only Great Power. Following Great Powers, Major Powers hold sway in world affairs through military and economic means, exemplified by countries like Germany, Japan and France. Below Major Powers are Regional Powers, a tier Thailand currently occupies. As a recognised regional power, Thailand wields an indirect global influence beyond the region through its soft power assets like Thai cuisine, Muay Thai and its status as a premier tourist destination. Nevertheless, in times of geopolitical confrontation among the Great Powers, these soft power elements will be of minimal significance. Thailand needs to up its game.
From post-WWII to today, the US has been the single Great Power that dictated the "world order". Today, the world is witnessing a shift from a unipolar to a multipolar landscape, where China's inexorable rise poses a challenge to the reigning Great Power, the United States. History has demonstrated that the ascent of a challenger is beyond the control of incumbent Great Powers. The rising power often charts diverse paths to the top that evade the incumbent's attempts at obstruction. This dynamic is evident in the ongoing US sanctions and China's ability to chart alternative pathways exemplified by advancements in industries such as space, solar panels, automobiles and manufacturing.
An essential consideration for Thailand is that historical transitions between Great Powers consistently involve significant conflict or outright war, a recurrent pattern throughout history. In light of these escalating global geopolitical tensions, Thailand must now endeavour to achieve a status beyond a regional power. In the not-too-distant future, when the inevitable conflicts occur between Great Powers in this region, Thailand will need a mechanism to defend itself, a neutral positioning and a way to involve the world's interests in our independence and well-being.
One unique aspect of Thailand's geography is the isthmus of Kra, a narrow strip of land that separates two vast oceans, the Pacific and the Indian. Constructing a canal to link these oceans would require building a canal of just around 120 kilometres. This canal would provide an alternative to the Malacca Strait route. This shorter travel route via the canal promises savings in both time and money while also offering protection from pirate attacks, vessel congestion and disruptions due to geopolitical tensions. This route would quickly become the preferred route for trade between Europe, the Middle East, and all nations in the South China Sea region, encompassing China, Japan, Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan. Moreover, the project's financial viability is well-established: as long as the canal offers cost savings compared to traversing the Malacca Strait, the investment in digging the canal can be recouped with profit through its operations. Studies indicate that the canal's operation would also stimulate the local economy, potentially boosting regional GDP growth by up to 10% annually.
This is, of course, the isthmus of Kra Canal project which has been languishing in parliament for decades. Endless debates have failed to result in any concrete action. However, the shifting global landscape has now added much weight to the necessity for the approval and funding of this project. What hasn't been factored into the decision-making equation in the past is the geopolitical importance and the potential elevation of Thailand's global stature and influence as the sole or principal owner of the Kra Canal. By assuming the role of gatekeeper to what will be one of the world's major shipping lanes, Thailand stands to expand its presence on the global stage significantly. Ensuring the canal's continued openness and international accessibility will become a shared objective among trading nations, motivating them to rally behind Thailand's continued independence. The Kra Canal project represents the singular opportunity to elevate Thailand's global standing and amplify its voice loudly enough to be heard by the UN General Assembly and Security Council.
In today's escalating geopolitical tensions, the Kra Canal Project stands as a vital cornerstone for securing Thailand's future safety. There is no better time to make the Kra Canal project one of Thailand's national priorities. Instead of endlessly debating the merits of the project, each of us should take action by grabbing a shovel, and head down south to start digging.
ML Saksiri Kridakorn
