Times of change
Re: "Foreign policy needs to be democratic", (Opinion, Oct. 11 ).
We have come to expect and admire Prof Thitinan, who expertly pillories the ultra-conservative forces that continue to block Thailand's socio-economic and political progress.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra might want to keep in mind Prof Thitinan's analysis, before she and her foreign minister get too carried away promoting Thailand's "proactive and constructive approach to help solve the current conflict in Myanmar", starting with extended informal consultations among Asean nations in December.
One has to wonder about her game plan. Our foreign policy toward this neighbour remains largely under the control of the very same military we want to send back to the barracks, once and for all.
One only has to look back a few years, when we had a general as prime minister, and remember Thailand acting as an apologist for the Myanmar junta, quite the opposite required to be a peacemaker, and upsetting for some of our Asean friends, particularly Malaysia, which just happens to have taken over the Asean Chair at the recent summit in Lao PDR.
Does the prime minister recognise the changing landscape, both within Myanmar and among external stakeholders? Within new reality, the Tatmadaw will never regain power.
The anti-junta movement will never accept the peace talks and sham elections the junta is proposing, and seeks fundamental changes.
As for external stakeholders, China is the elephant in the room, with major strategic economic interests in Myanmar. But finding itself on the wrong side of history, and very much out of favour with the Myanmar people, China is encouraging the junta to project an air of reasonableness.
After all, the last outcome China wants is a democratic federated Myanmar inclined toward a pro-Western outlook, the most likely long-term outcome. And then there is India, long a junta supporter because of its restive northeast, slowly coming to the realisation its strategic interests should dictate more support for radical anti-junta change.
Against this complex, ever-changing backdrop, some analysts might favour Thailand adopting an asymmetric foreign policy toward Myanmar, namely deep engagement with the broad anti-junta coalition to help determine the real parametres for any possible cessation of hostilities and move toward a peaceful resolution of this tragic civil war.
Will the prime minister be brave enough? Will her military allow her?
