OPINION

Skills over subsidies

Re: "Rice exports expected to tally 9m tonnes", (Business, Nov 13) & "Rice Measures get approval", (BP, Nov 10).

Taxpayer money budgeted to subsidise rice farmers should be repurposed to empower them to reduce debt and keep it down. In 2023, rice exports were up 13% in quantity and 28.4% in value year-on-year. This year's Q1-Q3 has been even better: rice exports soared 32% in volume and 45.8% in value. In such a rosy situation, farmers don't need price subsidies.

But farmers have been drowning in a sea of bad debts, and the Paetongtarn government should encourage and help them to boost productivity to increase their revenue. Some 40% of farming households earned less than Thailand's poverty line of 32,000 baht a year against the average annual household income of 450,000 baht.

Farmers are ageing; those aged 15-40 have dropped from 48% of all farmers to 32% over 2003-2013. Our rice yields have stagnated for the past decade and now are only half of Vietnam's. Our largest group of farmers uses the same methods as their forefathers.

Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra should allocate more resources to subsidise and train farmers to grow high-yield, high-value crops, like organics, using highly efficient methods. Train them to use crop forecasts and be financially literate.

In short, please use hard-earned taxpayer funds to solve problems sustainably.

Defending invasion

Re: "Motives for war", (PostBag, Nov 13) & "Putin's playbook", (BP, Nov 9).

Nick Ferriman continues to amuse with his Putin-style doublespeak. Now we hear that Russia only invaded Finland because it refused a "reasonable request" to just hand over their territory to Russia -- a country whose independence Russia had recognised in 1917.

I suppose Mr Ferriman is next going to tell us that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was also due to them refusing a "reasonable request" to hand over their territory to the warmongering Soviet-style bully.

Canal to prosperity

Re: "US tariffs prompt relocations to Thailand", (Business, Nov 13) & "Bracing for trade war", (Editorial, Nov 8).

The USA is going to lose the economic war with China eventually. The situation has reached a point where the USA can no longer hope to win, as its position in various industries is eroding faster than it can be reversed. The strategy of surrounding and isolating China is going to fail. After all, countries prioritise their own economic well-being through trade with China over ideological alignment with a declining empire.

Thus, the only way the USA can hope to regain control is by significantly slowing down China's rise through a hot war involving some form of physical conflict by 2027.

To navigate these challenging geopolitics, Thailand must recognise that America will inevitably defend its interests through military manoeuvres, with the Strait of Malacca being a logical theatre. If Thailand can offer an alternative maritime passageway that saves on shipping costs and provides pirate-free passage, it will attract significant business opportunities.

Once again, I am bringing up the Kra Canal project. The clear geopolitical manoeuvring for the coming decade has now tipped the balance towards taking action rather than remaining inactive. Recent geopolitical developments have clarified the past century's path of inaction: there have been countries and external parties that have prevented the Kra Canal from being built.

That was the past. Our focus today should be on how to make Thailand stronger in the increasingly complex geopolitical landscape of the coming decades.

Examining past arguments and alternative plans, we find the following:

The argument about the unjustified cost of the Kra Canal simply does not hold up to basic financial analysis. As long as revenue covers operating costs and long-term benefits, loan repayment can be managed with many load-providing sources being willing to offer. Indeed, the argument about the prohibitive cost of the Kra Canal has been peddled for years by those who do not want the canal built because it would divert traffic from the Malacca Strait.

One major benefit of the Kra Canal is the significant boost in economic growth for Southern Thailand. By creating a direct maritime route between the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea, the canal would facilitate faster and more efficient shipping, reducing transit times and costs for global trade. The project has been estimated to be able to raise the region's GDP by as much as 12%, a substantial economic uplift that would spur development, create jobs, and attract other industries to Thailand.

Additionally, operating such an important sea passageway would elevate Thailand's stature on the global stage. The Kra Canal would position Thailand as a new hub and alternative route in international maritime trade, enhancing its influence and giving it a stronger voice in regional and global economic affairs. This strategic advantage would benefit Thailand not only economically but also politically on the world stage, making it a key player.

Perhaps the strongest argument for the Kra Canal project is the stature that Thailand would gain from becoming an operator of an important sea trading passageway connecting Asia to the Middle East and Europe. While Thailand is recognised as a Southeast Asian regional power, the Kra Canal is the only way that Thailand can attain a higher stature and voice in the world for the coming decade.

This project would transform Thailand from a regional player to a significant global maritime power, giving it a pivotal role in international trade and geopolitics.

Net zero price tag

As the global race to net zero accelerates, Thailand confronts a daunting dilemma: the financial strain of transforming its infrastructure for a low-carbon future, a challenge it shares with many low- and middle-income countries.

According to Kwanpadh Suddhi-Dhamakit, Senior Country Officer for World Bank Thailand, Thailand's public sector financing is not sufficient to meet the estimated $350 billion (12 trillion baht) required for rapid decarbonisation in Thailand.

Achieving net-zero emissions demands a sweeping transformation of Thailand's economy. The electricity grid, currently reliant on oil and natural gas, must be transitioned to low or zero emission sources of electricity. Private investment must be unlocked for adapting industrial and agricultural processes. The nation's transport infrastructure must be overhauled. Markets must be established for carbon trading and offset programs.

Thailand is already laying the groundwork for carbon pricing tools, such as carbon taxes, emission trading systems (ETS), and government-led crediting mechanisms, to connect its economy to global carbon markets. By tapping into carbon credit revenues, the country aims to ease fiscal pressures and replace traditional tax incentives, creating a powerful catalyst to fast-track its decarbonisation journey.

Indeed, there are many good examples that Thailand can follow.

Among them is Jeju province, South Korea. The island, which welcomes around 13 million tourists annually, is on a path to becoming a zero-carbon city by 2035, with 5.43 million tonnes of carbon removed from the atmosphere. Out of the island's 698 buses, an impressive 30% are electric, and nine are powered by zero-emissions green hydrogen.

A driving force in the global shift towards electrical mobility, South Korea boasts one of the most developed electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructures, with a ratio of one station for every two electric cars. In 2022, the South Korean EV charging market was valued at over $410 million, and projections suggest it will reach $4.8 billion by 2030.

Despite the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, current climate policies have us on a path towards a 2.7-3.1C rise by 2100. Without urgent, swift and sweeping reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, the world risks facing even more frequent and severe weather extremes. These will prove especially costly for Thailand, an economy still largely dependent on agriculture and with several low-lying cities like the capital, Bangkok.

Islands are uniquely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Indeed, Phuket hosted the Inter-Islands Tourism Policy (ITOP) on Sept 25 to address sustainability. A few weeks later, flash floods and landslides left 13 dead and over 50 homes destroyed. This is a stark reminder of the escalating risks that these parts of the country will face over the coming years.

Phuket is already taking steps towards a greener future by launching a free electric bus service along a circular route within the Old Town. In collaboration with the Sustainable Tourism Development Foundation, the local government plans to expand EV bus routes and enhance waste management systems -- part of a broader push to slash carbon emissions by 30% by 2030.

In Southeast Asia, cities along the coast are sinking faster than similar cities in other parts of the world. This can be attributed to rapid, unplanned urbanisation, which heightens risks already presented by extreme rainfall and rising sea levels. Throughout the past decade, countries have been allocating resources towards different solutions, from movable flood barriers in Bangkok to Indonesia's ambitious and controversial plans to relocate its capital city to the Borneo rainforest.

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