Consider real tax reform
Re: "15% VAT plan has PM vexed", (BP, Dec 6).
Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira appears to have his thinking hat on back to front.
Firstly, he seems to think the OECD is calling for a maximum corporate tax rate of 15% to use as a justification for lowering Thailand's corporate tax rate from 20% to 15%. In fact, the Pillar 2 OECD initiative is quite the opposite.
It is designed to ensure multinational enterprises with an annual turnover of at least €750 million (27 billion baht) pay a "minimum" effective tax rate of 15% on their worldwide profits, no matter where these profits arise.
Secondly, the minister wants to increase Value-Added Tax (VAT), which is much loved by finance ministries around the world for its ease of collection, apparently believing this could serve as a tool to help low-income individuals and narrow the gap between the rich and poor.
But as every economist knows, VAT is generally considered a regressive tax. Simply put, VAT is a consumption tax, and poorer households spend a larger proportion of their income consuming the daily necessities of life.
So a higher VAT rate is bad for poor people, unless there are compensating direct transfers.
One can almost sympathise with the minister, playing as he does a key role in a government addicted to debt, but doubling VAT and lowering personal and corporate tax rates is not the path towards a more equal Thailand, neither is it the path towards fiscal sustainability.
Thai governments are running record budget deficits. Minister Pichai has even floated the idea of one final, giant 3-trillion-baht bite of public debt, to hit the legal limit of 70% of GDP. This would leave the country with no fiscal space and almost certainly increase our sovereign risk ratings.
Perhaps it is time for the minister to consider real reform of the country's tax structure, as unpleasant as it may be. Embrace the 51% of the workforce in the informal sector by making social security universal, tax wealth, especially land, appropriately, and close the myriad of loopholes allowing tax avoidance.