OPINION

No more bailouts

Re: "Thailand's shrimp industry battered by disease, low prices", (Business, Dec 12).

Something is fishy (shrimpy?) with the Thai shrimp industry's pleas for more government assistance. Basic economics dictates that as supplies of a good or service decline, prices will rise.

Thai shrimp production is reportedly falling an estimated 4% in 2024 from previous levels -- a decline that is mirrored by a 4% drop in shrimp production globally. With falling production, shrimp farmers can expect higher prices for their product. Yet, the industry is complaining about "falling prices".

In predictable fashion, the president of the Thai Shrimp Association has called for more government financial subsidies, including handouts to "mitigate more than 600 billion baht in losses". The sought-after largesse is even expected to boost Thai shrimp production by 50% from current levels.

Thai taxpayers should seriously question why they should bail out failing shrimp producers. If Thai shrimp farmers aren't able to produce a quality product at a competitive price by now -- after decades of government support -- logic suggests reducing, not increasing, the level of production and the number of shrimp farms.

Let market forces work efficiently rather than wasting taxpayers' money!

Thai stock puzzle

Re: "Overvalued giants", (PostBag, Dec 5).

Paul Renaud's observation on the Thai stock market is right on. The volatility of trading is caused by a few big-cap stocks in which the price trades at price/earnings/ratio at 80 (or 80 times or years of the current earnings) while priced higher than book value at 20 times. They have 20,000 stockholders, and the dividend yield is less than 1%. The high value can only be justified by the perception of growth prospects or merely short-term speculation.

Whereas those companies, darlings of foreign investors and also conservative Thais, the financial ratios are unusually depressive, with P/E at 8 and P/BV at less than one, though the dividend yield is 6%.

The depression has been prevalent in the past few years, mainly heavily sold by foreign institutions. Most have over 100,000 stockholders, and half are small investors. Again, the cause is the perception of their prospects, which are largely influenced by the Thai economy.

It remains to be seen whether those high-rises will be sustainable in the future.

Power of prayer

Re: "Out-of-control fires burn crops and archaeological sites", (World, Nov 21).

A blazing fire, which began in November, has become rampant and engulfed the Amazon rainforest. Maybe there have been reasons like climate change and incidents like the felling of forest trees.

The ecological threat is not limited to only highly valued rainforests in the South American continent. In South Asia, where I live, there are deep forest areas and many green pastures in areas, such as Tuticorin, Korkai, Tiruchendur, Tirunelveli, and Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu. Such green areas the world over should be protected at all costs. The international community must get serious about such drastic wildfire incidents through greater efforts and better technology.

It is interesting to note that many indigenous tribes have been praying to protect the Amazon rainforest from natural hazards like wildfires. And this has been largely reported by the media.

People hailing from areas in Tamil Nadu often turn to prayers when they are having difficulty. Such prayers and their good wishes have yielded good results apart from making good relationships with others.

Such emphatic activities will instil beautiful characteristics into countries and people.

Grounded by graft

Re: "Airline meddling", (PostBag, Dec 12).

Burin Kantabutra's latest insistence about THAI not having government representatives on its board is praiseworthy. But if one had read the book recently published on the history of THAI and the reasons for relying on legal rehabilitation when it was near bankruptcy, one would agree with him. The book was written by THAI's ex-director, Khun Charnsilp Treenuchakorn.

In the book, Khun Charnsilp attributed THAI's near bankruptcy state to the then directors's purchases of long-distant Boeing planes, which were proved not commercially viable and yet more planes were purchased and ended up on the runway.

Now, we know why it was additionally purchased when it was loss-making for each flight.

It was revealed in 2017 that Rolls-Royce confessed to the British Serious Fraud Office of having paid 254 million baht to grease a deal for Rolls-Royce engines for six Boeing 777 and seven Airbus A340 aircraft. The case is now in a Thai court on corruption charges against the type of directors Khun Burin is against.

AI's poetic edge

Re: "Moving with the times", (PostBag, Dec 8) and "Australia to figure out how to enforce teen social media ban", (Spotlight, Nov 30).

The Post's title for Ellis O'Brien's letter was perhaps more prophetic than intended. Moving on from his dubious objections to social media, which apply similarly to earlier media, from newspapers to radio and TV, which even infants are allowed to watch, even Thai TV, Mr Ellis complains that AI "hasn't a clue about the nuances of the English".

But the facts are that we normal humans can no longer reliably distinguish AI-written prose from human-generated prose.

Worse (?), a recent study reports that your average native English speaker is not only more likely to judge AI poetry as human-created and vice versa but that we are likely to prefer AI poetry in the style of Shakespeare and later greats to classic human creations. Typical humans rated AI poetry superior on 13 of 14 qualitative criteria, from beauty, imagery, meaningfulness, and profundity to sound, rhythm, theme and wittiness.

The only criterion on which human poetry was judged to equal the AI product was originality, where it tied. (Porter & Machery, 2024, Nov.14 "AI-generated poetry is indistinguishable from human-written poetry and is rated more favourably", Scientific Reports) And that was for the already superseded Chat GPT 3.5. Who knows what it will be capable of next year?

As Mr Ellis notes, Hollywood is disturbed. But Hollywood is not disturbed because AI writes at a level inferior to human authors, quite the contrary.

So that humans can decide whether to indulge in AI or human entertainment and other language-based activities, the law urgently needs to mandate that when it is released in public, a disclaimer should be included for all AI content. We can then decide whether to indulge in the AI or a human creation.

So far, it is probably true that AI does not understand, that it is not yet conscious, but since we have no solid account of what conscious even is, it's hard to say with confidence how probable it is that AI has still not achieved it, or for us to know when it does.

AI is already certainly good enough to fool many humans, including experts in the field, as demonstrated by Google engineer Blake Lemoine, who famously thought that the company's AI, LaMDA, had achieved sentience. Google promptly fired him. A win for AI by a smitten human? How long before help is requested for the sick family buffalo?

As a human poet once put it: "The times, they are a-changin'. " Faster next year than this.

A global concern

For the past century, the West has played a significant role in improving global living conditions. However, it appears we have been lulled into believing that the West has moved beyond its imperialistic tendencies.

The Western coalition, led by the United States, is now driving the world deeper into multiple conflicts and the looming threat of a nuclear holocaust--a fate that humanity may not survive. Meanwhile, the Global South watches with growing trepidation.

We can only hope that the United States will acknowledge its misguided approach and shift away from its aggressive military stance. However, an objective analysis uncovers several domestic conditions and legacies that continue to shape US foreign policies. While these conditions and legacies are commonly accepted in the US, they are troubling to much of the rest of the world.

Gun mentality: The US Constitution guarantees citizens the right to bear arms. Statistically, there are 40% more guns than people in the United States, reflecting a deeply ingrained gun culture.

Military spending: The US allocates more to its military than the next 10 countries combined.

Global military presence: The US operates approximately 800 military bases worldwide, while the rest of the world collectively has fewer than 100.

History of armed conflicts: From the end of World War II to 2020, the US initiated 210 out of 257 armed conflicts across 153 regions globally.

Military financial accountability: The Pentagon has failed its annual audit for the seventh consecutive year, underscoring the pervasive influence of military mentality.

Given these realities, the chances of a US turnaround appear slim. To survive, the world requires a new approach -- one that emphasises diplomacy and cooperation over military might as a means of influence.

If the US does not change its ways, 85% of the global population outside the collective West will gravitate to a new leader committed to peace and collaboration.

As the saying goes, "When the only tool is a gun, every problem looks like a target."

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