The commercial real estate market is expected to remain resilient in 2026, with demand concentrated in hotels, data centres, industrial and logistics assets, and high-quality office and retail space, according to property consultancy JLL Thailand.
Krit Pimhataivoot, country head and head of capital markets, said investors, developers, and occupiers are adjusting to shifting demand drivers, tighter capital discipline and evolving use patterns across sectors.
"Growth opportunities remain, but they are increasingly concentrated in assets aligned with long-term macro trends and changing occupier and investor requirements," he said.
RESILIENT HOSPITALITY
In the hospitality sector, Thailand continues to demonstrate resilience despite intensifying competition from neighbouring countries and a slower recovery in the Chinese market.
International arrivals are forecast to reach 35.5 million in 2026, representing an 8% growth from 32.9 million in 2025. While Chinese tourists have been slower to return, arrivals from markets such as India and Russia recorded notable growth last year.
Hotel investment remained strong, reaching 26.4 billion baht in 2025, nearly double the 10-year historical average between 2016 and 2025, with more than 75% of transaction volume concentrated in Bangkok.
Most transactions were value-added in nature, with new owners expected to reposition assets. Investment activity in 2026 is projected to normalise to around 13 billion baht, reflecting a more measured transaction environment.
DATA CENTRE BOOM
In the industrial and logistics sector, structural demand drivers are shaping opportunities, with data centres and high-value industries emerging as increasingly important sources of demand alongside e-commerce.
Board of Investment (BoI)-approved digital industry investments exceeded 746 billion baht in 2025, underscoring Thailand's growing role as a regional hub for data centre development in Southeast Asia.
The sector is projected to grow by 40-60% over the next three years, with 360 megawatts of capacity planned for both 2026 and 2027.
The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) accounts for 54.8% of total stock, while Greater Bangkok serves as a critical connectivity hub, supported by expansion from new colocation operators.
"This expansion is accompanied by increasing constraints in land acquisition and site selection," said Mr Krit.
Suitable plots with sufficient power grid capacity, fibre infrastructure and cooling capabilities are becoming scarcer in prime locations.
He said developers are undertaking intensive due diligence, assessing power reliability, environmental compliance and long-term utility scalability before committing to large-scale investments.
In the manufacturing sector, performance was robust in 2025, supported by strong export growth and foreign direct investment inflows, reinforcing Thailand's position as a preferred destination for China+1 diversification strategies.
From 2021 to the first half of 2025, industrial estate net absorption surpassed 24,000 rai, reducing the nationwide vacancy rate to 14.6%.
This expansion was primarily driven by Chinese manufacturers establishing operations in the automotive, metal products, and electrical appliances industries as part of broader supply chain rebalancing.
"Strong demand is expected to persist across the EEC and Bangkok's eastern vicinity in 2026," said Mr Krit.
SELECTIVE LAND ACQUISITION
In capital markets, land investment activity continues, but with greater selectivity. Wealthy individuals are becoming more active in acquiring land and real estate, placing a stronger emphasis on value and deal discipline, he said.
Foreign investors remain active in exploring assets aligned with Thailand's macro trends -- notably data centres, industrial and logistics assets, and hotels -- with BoI-linked ownership structures remaining a key consideration.
"Developers are also more selective than in the pre-pandemic cycle, with land acquisition ticket sizes trending smaller," he said.
Whereas condo projects previously targeted plots of three to six rai, the current market is seeing interest in much smaller sites, generally capped at around three rai.
Leasehold structures are becoming more prominent, reflecting lower upfront capital requirements while enabling development in unique locations where freehold economics may not support recurring income assets.
Market interest in leasehold structures was reinforced by notable transactions in 2025, including the widely reported long-term land lease deal in the Asok–Phrom Phong area.
ROBUST OFFICE RELOCATION
In the office sector, a more granular form of flight to quality is emerging. Roughly 528,000 square metres across 12 projects are set to be completed in 2026.
Net absorption in Bangkok's central business area (CBA) reached about 88,200 sq m in 2025, above the five-year average, and is expected to continue in 2026 amid a slowdown in CBA supply.
Supply and demand are shifting towards northern and eastern hubs, where more than 230,000 sq m across seven projects are due for completion in 2026, following the launch of several prime offices in 2025.
"We expect to see robust relocation demand in these hubs, similar to previous trends in the CBA," said Mr Krit. "Environmental, social and governance [ESG] requirements are increasingly shaping leasing decisions."
According to JLL Research, 53 of the top 100 corporate occupiers with ESG commitments remain in non-green buildings, representing around 420,000 sq m of potential relocation demand.
Demand for flexible workspace is also re-emerging as tenants prioritise lower capital expenditure amid economic uncertainty.
Multinational corporations are increasingly adopting flexible solutions despite their large headcounts, with wholesale and retail trade companies leading adoption, followed by technology firms.
This trend is reflected in operators' expansion plans and landlords' willingness to offer flexible solutions, which are now commonly integrated into new developments and refurbishments.
In retail, performance continues to diverge by asset type and positioning. In Greater Bangkok, experiential retail and asset repositioning strategies are gaining traction.
Hypermarket operators are introducing lifestyle-oriented formats, and major CBA malls are undergoing large-scale renovations through themed concepts and partnerships with international anchor tenants.
International retailer and brand entries remain elevated, with more than 890 new units added during 2024–2025, according to JLL's survey.
Fashion brands accounted for 43.3% of activity, followed by food and beverage (32.8%) and household products (16.4%).
This momentum is expected to continue in 2026, particularly among mainland Chinese brands pursuing regional diversification.
STRUCTURAL DRIVERS
"Thailand's market is not moving as a single story across all sectors," said Mr Krit. "What we are seeing is a more selective cycle, where demand and capital are concentrating in areas supported by structural drivers."
These include data centre-led activity, industrial and logistics assets, differentiated hospitality offerings, and a more targeted flight to quality in the office sector.
In this environment, the ability to match strategy with the realities of each sector and submarket will be the key differentiator, he said.
"The Thai commercial real estate market has entered a phase where future-proofing quality and adaptability are becoming decisive competitive advantages," said Anawin Chiamprasert, head of research and consultancy.
JLL's data show a widening performance gap between assets positioned for long-term structural change and those chasing short-term cyclical opportunities.
Mr Anawin said demand is concentrating in sectors linked to digital infrastructure, sustainability and evolving consumer experiences.
"Investors are responding with greater creativity and discipline in capital allocation, focusing on specific asset classes and high-growth locations capable of sustaining occupancy and income resilience amid prolonged economic challenges," he added.
Across sectors, JLL expects 2026 to be characterised by targeted growth rather than broad-based recovery, with market participants focusing more on assets and structures aligned with long-term demand themes and operational realities.
