By:
- Aman Modi, Managing Director and Partner, and Head of BCG Thailand
- Athit Krittayaphongphun, Partner, Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
In March 2026, the world changed. Again.
As the war in Iran sent oil prices surging, closed the Strait of Hormuz, and grounded flights across the Gulf, Thai businesses woke up to a familiar and uncomfortable feeling — the ground shifting beneath them without warning.
For leaders still waiting for the world to ‘return to normal’, this is a clarifying moment. There is no return. There is only the ability to navigate what comes next.
This is not an isolated shock. In just six years, the global economy has faced a pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and escalating trade friction. Separately, technological shifts like the AI revolution have fundamentally transformed how businesses operate and compete, with AI increasingly seen as a critical enabler in managing risk and navigating uncertainty.
The pace of disruption has itself become the defining feature of our operating environment.
A World in Multipolar Transition
We are increasingly moving towards multipolarity, where multiple power centres now assert their own economic and strategic agendas. There is no single anchor and no predictable playbook.
These events reflect deep structural forces rather than temporary cycles, requiring companies to rethink how they operate in a more fragmented global environment.
Trade routes, regulatory frameworks, and supply chain architectures are undergoing fundamental reconfiguration. Economic statecraft, including tariffs and sanctions, increasingly intersects with business strategy and technology leadership.
The recent Iranian retaliatory strikes crystallise a specific, latent risk regarding energy and logistics chokepoints. Stock markets declined quickly in response to the conflict. Major shipping carriers soon suspended Middle East operations.
The Strait of Hormuz closure serves as a reminder that global supply chains run geographically, and geography is never neutral.
ASEAN’s Expanding Role and its Dilemma
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) sits at the epicentre of this realignment, with Thailand as an example of the disruptions the wider region faces.
Thailand imports the vast majority of its oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Strait of Hormuz disruption is not abstract geopolitics. It is a real-time fuel price shock.
Thailand is the largest Asian net energy importer in relative terms, estimated at around 6% of GDP. It imports up to 90% of its crude oil needs, primarily from the Middle East, with under a third of its LNG imports coming from the region.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz therefore presents a genuine question of energy security. The seriousness of the situation is reflected in the government’s response: suspending the export of O&G and petroleum products, triggering the Oil Fuel Fund to subsidise fuel costs, directing oil traders to raise safety stocks from 1% to 3%, and issuing directives for civil servants to work from home.
There are also broader costs to consider. Gulf airspace closures directly affect Thai carriers and workers stationed in the region. Suspensions by major shipping carriers disrupt ASEAN manufacturing supply chains. Logistics providers have to reroute and manage delays, and Thai importers and exporters will feel the impact as costs rise.
While the current disruption is challenging, broader global shifts are also creating structural changes that ASEAN is well positioned to navigate. As companies diversify where they manufacture and invest, ASEAN’s position and scale increase its strategic importance.
ASEAN forms the world's fifth-largest economic bloc. Rising trade volumes, growing FDI, and a demographic dividend position the region as a critical connector and catalyst of growth. Global uncertainty often creates pull factors for investment here.
This evolving reality poses a strategic dilemma. ASEAN nations face mounting pressure to pick sides regarding supply chains, technology platforms, and trade. The region's historic strength is strategic autonomy.
As the 'Detroit of Asia', Thailand's automotive and electronics sectors face headwinds from shifting tariffs. Energy price volatility adds another layer of cost pressure.
It’s time for ASEAN to recognise its agency in this period of uncertainty. The region is no passive victim of events, but a strategic connector with a reputation for neutrality that provides a powerful foundation for the future.
Building the Uncertainty Advantage
How should businesses in Thailand and ASEAN respond?
When crises hit, the natural corporate instinct is to freeze. Leaders delay investments, wait for clarity, and hunker down. This instinct proves costly. BCG research has shown that many CEOs cite moving too slowly during disruption as their biggest regret.
Companies that treat geopolitical risk reactively consistently underperform those that build proactive capabilities. In a dynamically shifting landscape, the risk of inaction frequently outweighs the risk of a well-considered, bold move.
To navigate this environment, leaders need to strengthen four key capabilities.
1. Build geopolitical muscle. The conflict in the Middle East represents a scenario that many boards had not fully modelled. It’s a reminder that geopolitical risks should be treated with the same strategic urgency as digital transformation or climate risk. This is not a background condition but a core business variable. Invest in dedicated scenario planning. Map plausible futures and pressure-test business plans against each. In this regard, AI, with its predictive capabilities, can be leveraged to strengthen decision-making, simulating a range of disruption scenarios, and enabling companies to assess potential impacts and adapt more quickly.
Furthermore, engage in public-private dialogue. Thailand's government and industry associations could play an important role in sharing intelligence and coordinating responses.
2. Redesign supply chains for resilience. The era of optimising purely for cost is over. Single-point-of-failure dependencies carry risks that do not appear on a standard P&L until it is too late.
Thai businesses must audit exposures, diversify their supplier base, and develop alternative routing. Companies should also leverage intraregional trade infrastructure. Frameworks like the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement (ATIGA) – established to encourage the free flow of goods within ASEAN through the elimination of tariffs – remain underutilised by many organisations.
3. Adopt a trifocal strategic lens. Successful ASEAN companies must act simultaneously at three levels. They need to deepen intra-ASEAN connectivity, expand across Asia, and selectively engage globally.
This requires proactive portfolio management. When one corridor closes, others must already be open. Thailand's position as a manufacturing hub and regional logistics node provides natural anchors, but leaders must actively cultivate these advantages.
4. Balance operational discipline with strategic boldness. Uncertainty does not justify deferring transformation. Leading companies invest counter-cyclically. They adopt agile methodologies, upgrade talent, and leverage new tools. Notably, organisations that combine AI with their learning capabilities are better equipped to respond to volatility. With AI, organisations can overcome the limitations of traditional medium- to long-term planning by modelling multiple scenarios and adjusting them dynamically as conditions evolve, enabling leaders to better balance risk and opportunity with strategic objectives.
We advocate a dual mindset. Be part disciplined operator and part visionary investor. Manage short-term volatility while making long-term bets that competitors are too cautious to make.
Preparing for the Road Ahead
The disruptions we have witnessed in recent years – and over the past weeks – remind us that the next shock will not announce itself in advance. The companies that will lead the next decade are not those that avoided uncertainty. They are the ones that built the capabilities to navigate it better than their peers.
For Thailand and ASEAN, global reconfiguration highlights the importance of acting with foresight. The world will change again. Will you be ready?
