OPINION

Markets gone wild

Re: "Investor burnout", (PostBag, May 29).

Paul A Renaud also hits the nail right on the head by highlighting the diversionary effects of stock market speculation and how this undermines the primary purpose of capital markets, which is to raise funds for meaningful long-term investment that will contribute to economic growth and rising living standards, one hopes.

A similar problem also affects and infects the foreign exchange markets (forex), where it was estimated not that long ago that 95% of dealings were purely speculative, causing significant short-term fluctuations in currency exchange.

The main purpose of forex is to finance and facilitate international trade (imports and exports), as well as capital movements between countries. Given that businesses prefer certainty that boosts confidence and increased trade, the speculative froth serves to undermine firms that are seriously trading internationally. This is because they fix prices in advance, but when it comes to the time for payment, they cannot be sure that the prices of goods bought (imports) and sold (exports) will cost the same, or yield the same sales revenue as originally determined, owing to often quite volatile fluctuations. In other words, imports may cost more (or less), and export revenues may also rise (or fall), thereby affecting potential profitability. So, apart from more futures and forward currency markets, what is needed is greater regulation, but this will leave the neo-liberals apoplectic.

Pick your pain

Re: "Trump's tariff trade war is no accident", (Opinion, May 1).

As the above columnist/economist, Chartchai Parasuk, notes, there are two main players in the world economy -- China and America. The US buys products from most countries, while China sells products to most countries. Hence, it stands to reason that China will have a positive trade account balance, while the US will have a negative trade account balance. That is the reason why Mr Chartchai states that Mr Trump's tariffs are not all so bad; the key is for countries to negotiate the amount of tariffs to be imposed on products.

It is estimated that America's fiscal deficit for 2029 will be $1.17 trillion (38 trillion baht) if Mr Trump's tariffs on goods from other countries are imposed, but $2.63 trillion if they are not. Furthermore, it's estimated that America's fiscal deficit will be $0.47 trillion under Mr Trump's tariffs, but $1.93 trillion if there are no tariffs. Withholding the Trump tariffs is a recipe for worldwide recession, Mr Chartchai insists. Thus, at the end of the day, no matter how much certain countries are opposed to the US government's current economic strategy, it sure beats the alternative of a global recession.

Power without sense

Re: "Thai climate ambitions face trade heat", (Opinion, May 28) & "Green energy has become a pricey delusion", (Opinion, May 13).

The recent commentary by Imran Arif on Thai climate goals is an idealistic way of looking at power generation. It must be stressed that the peak electricity demand in Thailand has been around 9pm at night, and that raises a very serious question on whether electricity from "solar solutions" can help Thailand cope with peak demand two hours after sunset. Emission-free hydropower that Thailand gets from the Mekong River has a real chance of diminishing along with the snowpack of the Himalayas. Natural gas or nuclear is the best and cleanest way to solve the issue of base-load power.

As China and India are happily burning record amounts of coal in 2024, why should Thailand shoulder a European-type renewables solution? Bjorn Lomborg's opinion, published on May 13, tells us this approach is certain to bring higher electricity costs. Does Thailand really care about the environment? If so, why is the government trying to bulldoze the world-renowned mangrove areas of Ranong to build a land bridge that no one needs?

Thailand just dropped electricity prices. Average US electricity prices are equivalent to 4.28 baht per kWh. The US has some of the cheapest energy in the world. Thailand does not. Making electricity artificially cheap isn't going to allow renewables to make financial sense.

No new fix

Re: "Thaksin backs drug fight", (BP, May 28).

For someone who wallows in presenting himself as a great business person thanks to a fortune made through a questionable business deal in mobile phone concessions, Thaksin Shinawatra sure manages to sound clueless as to what drives Thailand's drug problems of many decades.

Some would look to alternatives to the traditional failed drug policy that Thaksin continues to preach. The lucid would look to implement policies that might actually reduce drug harms to society. Thailand's recent legalisation of cannabis also seems successful; it has not brought about the collapse of the nation as the purveyors and users of traditionally legal drugs had wrongly anticipated. Legalisation, or at least decriminalisation, with due regulation, is seen to work, a fact we already know from the alcohol and cigarette industries.

Waging war on drug producers in Myanmar sounds attractive to those seeking to deflect attention from the domestic drivers of drug use enriching the business people cashing in on supplying that demand for both legal and illegal drugs, but the demand will continue, and with it the drug use and the drug harms to Thai youth and society.

Thaksin has not offered any solution, only more of the same, and that makes him part of the problem, along with those who brought him back to do exactly what his daughter and their Pheu Thai Party have done since May 2023.

It is an ugly irony that those arguably most morally responsible for the persistent drug problems confronting Thailand, those whose deeds have most created the drivers of demand, are the most vocal in calling for ruthless suppression, but then suppression of others' voices, especially the voice of youth, is where they thrive.

Retire old choppers

Re: "Crashes put aircraft in the hangar", (BP, May 27).

There is a surge in the emergence of low-altitude commerce (typically below 1,000 feet) using aerial vehicles, including cargo delivery and passenger transportation. So it's about time for us to take a look at commercially operated helicopters in Thailand. Just in the past two decades, helicopter accidents have taken the lives of many prominent Thai individuals.

Helicopters in Western countries are typically retired after an average of 20-25 years of service. The Royal Thai Army recently retired its fleet of Bell UH-1H Huey helicopters after 52 years of service. It is not unusual for helicopters in Thailand to remain in service for 40 years or more. By permitting these ageing aircraft to operate, we are implicitly trading lives for the sake of time savings, often without passengers being fully aware of the associated risks.

As a former aerospace engineer and someone who has lost a relative in a local helicopter accident, I find it imperative to question why Thailand continues to allow outdated technology used in helicopters to operate in its airspace, especially given its past high-profile accident records. The solution to preventing future helicopter tragedies is to adopt newer and safer technology.

Indeed, the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand should intervene by establishing a timeline to cease the local acquisition and operation of these archaic flying machines for commercial purposes.

Perhaps the most important mindset is to view this tragic situation as an opportunity for Thailand to grow and improve. It may not be well known to most of our fellow citizens, but Thailand does, indeed, have a developing commercial drone industry. As electrical-powered VTOL flight is a new and emerging technology, Thailand has a level playing field with traditional and new startup VTOL developers.

Moreover, the new technology leaders in this field are based in countries where they would be happy to cooperate with us, ie. China, Iran, Turkey, Russia, etc., are Brics countries. These countries have the new low-altitude vehicle technology, with their recent military and commercial drone successes backing up this point. Thailand must stop replacing old helicopters with just other second-hand helicopters.

Student or spy?

Re: "Students not spared", (PostBag, May 28).

I read Felix Qui's brief, but memorable comments in PostBag about me, and I understand his emotional, well-meaning outburst is simply because he has a lack of information about my background.

For everyone's information, my university degree is from Bangkok, not America, and I did visit admissions at Harvard University to be considered for a fully funded PhD soon after graduation in 2018, so I am hardly an enemy of foreign students.

However, after I graduated, when I was working on a significant aerospace project for Thai teenagers during the Covid pandemic, I was accidentally shown something which I should not have been -- where one of Thailand's assets was in orbit; "the final frontier".

Fortunately, I am the kind of foreigner who would never misuse that information. Sadly, many of the foreign students at Harvard, who have ready access to sensitive research which could compromise the US, are not so trustworthy, and there are too many of them, so the US must now remove them, and I see no reason why American students cannot do their own research.

Funny bone hit

Whilst carrying out the decennial house cleaning purge, I came across some old Bangkok Posts and started to read a discarded "Brunch" from October 2017. Andrew Biggs was always my favourite, and sure enough, he didn't fail in the reread. It was about the rise in costs when visiting the docs, titled "A pain in the anal cavity". Best laugh I've had in yonks. What a talent.

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