Strongman playbook
Re: "Senate votes to curb Potus' war powers", (World, Jan 10).
President Donald Trump has just proposed a US$1.5 trillion (47.1 trillion baht) budget for the rebranded War Department for 2027, over a 50% increase over the current budget, equalling the defence spending of the rest of the world!
How should we view this event? Certainly with fear and trepidation.
Mr Trump's proposal signals a tacit admission: current deployed methods of containing China have failed. Efforts to leverage Western financial systems, impose tariffs, restrict technology transfer (including AI), and rebuild domestic supply chains (such as rare earths) have proven ineffective or too slow to close the gap.
By proposing this enormous budget at a time when its ability to borrow money from the rest of the world is greatly reduced, and alternatives to the US dollar as the world reserve currency are becoming available, it has taken the next step to convert the US economy into a war economy.
By pivoting to a war economy, the US government will be able to use the old playbook European countries used leading up to World Wars I and II and is now being used to continue to support the war in Ukraine. But Mr Trump has two more objectives he's planning for.
Firstly, is the "great reset" of the sovereign debt. War provides the ultimate legal cover for a financial great reset. In a declared state of total war, the United States could invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the Trading with the Enemy Act to freeze and effectively nullify foreign obligations.
Secondly, there is the suspension of democracy for "continuity of government". Along with massive demonstrations in the United States stemming from recent policies mandated by Mr Trump on tariffs and the forced deportation of targeted ethnic groups, a shift toward a war economy could provide him with a pretext to declare martial law and attempt to suspend the democratic process indefinitely, keeping him in office and flouting the two‑term presidential limit established in the US constitution. Mr Trump has already foreshadowed this intent by floating the controversial idea of cancelling the 2026 midterm elections.
The world has seen this playbook before. It is a prelude to war.