Strong on the surface, fragile beneath

People’s Party deputy leader Sirikanya Tansakun says Thailand’s potential is real but undercut by weak planning and fading public trust, writes Aekarach Sattaburuth

Sirikanya Tansakun, deputy leader of the People’s Party, has offered a sweeping reflection on Thailand’s future, portraying a country with vast potential but held back by structural weaknesses and political uncertainty.

Speaking to mark the Bangkok Post’s 80th anniversary, she began by congratulating the newspaper on reaching the milestone, describing the media as one of the pillars of Thai democracy alongside elected representatives and public institutions.

“Among the pillars of Thai politics, politicians are only one part of the system. The media is equally important in helping democracy flourish and ensuring the principle of popular sovereignty,” Ms Sirikanya said.

“I’m glad the Bangkok Post has remained committed to presenting facts and meaningful opinions to the public for eight decades. I hope it continues to stand as a pillar of society and a force that helps democracy grow in Thailand for many years to come.”

A country of promise at a crossroads

Turning to the country’s trajectory, Ms Sirikanya said Thailand possesses far greater potential than its current performance suggests. The country’s human capital, natural resources and strategic advantages should place it in a stronger position economically and socially, she said, but repeated policy failures and weak long-term planning have prevented that promise from being fully realised.

She said Thailand’s economy remains vulnerable to shocks and has repeatedly struggled to recover from crises. From the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the global financial downturn to Covid-19 and the latest energy crisis, each episode has exposed weaknesses in the country’s ability to respond and rebound.

Thailand often emerges from crises more slowly than its peers and rarely returns to pre-crisis momentum, she says, causing long-term economic potential to decline each time.

She attributed this not to a lack of capability, but to an absence of coherent long-term vision among policymakers.

“We have been talking about economic restructuring for more than a decade, yet no government has seriously delivered it,” she said. “Thailand has the potential, but still lacks a clear strategy to unlock it and prepare for future challenges.”

Ms Sirikanya argued that solving economic problems cannot be separated from fixing politics. Sustainable growth, she said, requires both economic reform and a political system capable of earning public trust.

She said Thai governments have long struggled to establish credibility with citizens — a weakness that undermines attempts to build consensus and move the country forward.

Military-led administrations may have appeared stable but lacked legitimacy, while elected governments often have legitimacy but face persistent instability, she said. The result is a recurring cycle in which neither side achieves both.

‘House of cards’

Asked about the current administration under Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, Ms Sirikanya said it remains too early for a final judgment, but the coming period will be crucial.

The government, she said, has entered office at a particularly difficult moment, with conflict in the Middle East and an energy crisis creating pressure both domestically and internationally. Its ability to navigate those challenges while building public confidence will determine whether it can succeed.

Without trust, she warned, even capable leadership will struggle to govern effectively.

“A government may bring in talented technocrats or business leaders, but if people do not trust it, every initiative or reform will face resistance,” she said.

More broadly, she described the political order as outwardly strong but deeply fragile.

She likened the structure supporting the government to a “house of cards” — appearing stable on the surface but vulnerable to collapse if public confidence erodes.

She said attempts to extend political influence across elected bodies and independent institutions may create an image of control, but risk weakening the credibility of the very mechanisms meant to provide oversight and balance.

If the public loses faith in these institutions, the entire political framework could begin to unravel, she said.

Rather than one dramatic rupture, Ms Sirikanya said any political backlash would likely build gradually — “like water seeping into sand” — through a series of controversial decisions that slowly deepen public frustration.

Ageing society and changing attitudes

An ageing population also reveals structural gaps that are weighing down Thai society.

Increasing numbers of elderly people require long-term care, and families are forced to shoulder the financial and emotional burden on their own, while the country still lacks adequate welfare systems for older people.

That pressure, she added, will weigh on household finances, consumer spending and mental wellbeing, especially among the middle class.

She also expressed concern about changing public attitudes towards foreign workers and overseas visitors.

Thailand has long been known for openness and hospitality, she said, but economic pressure and concerns over visa-free entry being exploited for business activities are beginning to shift sentiment.

If unmanaged, this could gradually weaken one of the country’s long-standing social strengths — its ability to welcome outsiders while maintaining social cohesion.