Ageing fast, Thailand banks on its people

Economist Somchai Jitsuchon says upskilling the workforce — not schooling alone — is Thailand’s way out as it races towards a super-aged economy by 2033, write Apinya Wipatayotin

Thailand has officially entered the ranks of ageing societies, defined as a nation where 20% of the population is aged 60 or older. The proportion of elderly citizens has surged from 10% to 20% in just two decades, making Thailand one of the fastest-ageing countries in the world. By 2033, the nation is expected to become a “super-aged economy”, with seniors accounting for more than 28% of the population.

Economists warn that this demographic shift could slow economic growth. Older generations tend to spend cautiously, with much of their income directed towards healthcare. At the same time, the government faces mounting pressure to expand social security funding, while a shrinking workforce contributes fewer tax revenues. This imbalance between seniors, newborns and working-age citizens poses a serious structural challenge.

Yet, economist Somchai Jitsuchon, research director for inclusive development at the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), sees potential for a brighter future if the government invests more heavily in human capital. He notes that Thailand’s birth rate has already dropped to around 500,000 annually, leaving fewer workers to sustain growth. But he points to Japan as an example where productivity thrives despite an ageing population, thanks to strong investment in education and skills.

Thailand, however, faces a tougher road. Many of its baby boomers helped expand the population but lacked access to quality education. Statistics show that 80% of people over 60 never completed junior high school, and many in the 40-50 age group also have limited education. “We are unlucky to face two negative factors at once,” Mr Somchai explained. “Half of the workforce is unskilled, and the rising number of seniors helps explain Thailand’s sluggish growth over the past 20 years.”

While the government has focused on improving education for children, Mr Somchai argues this alone is insufficient. It benefits about 10 million young people but leaves 40 million working-age adults behind. “Investing in education is good, but to truly stimulate the economy, we must invest in human resource development across all ages. Upskilling and reskilling the workforce is essential,” he said, suggesting that the government allocate 100 billion baht annually to such programmes, which could boost GDP growth by 2%.

He proposed community-based training initiatives, such as courses in childcare, eldercare and healthcare support. These programmes would strengthen communities, create jobs and provide opportunities across generations.

A 2021 survey by the National Statistical Office revealed that seniors earned an average of just 87,138 baht per year (7,261 baht per month), below the national minimum wage. More than half depended on others for income, and many expressed uncertainty about whether their resources would be sufficient.

Mr Somchai concluded that Thailand has no choice but to invest in people. Without such action, GDP growth will remain among the lowest in Asean, foreign investment will decline and the country will lose its appeal. “Thailand cannot remain trapped in the deep hole of an ageing society,” he warned.

Thailand is approaching a demographic turning point that will reshape its economy, healthcare system and social fabric, as a rapidly greying population exposes widening gaps in retirement preparedness while opening new opportunities in an expanding “silver economy”.

By 2035, the country is projected to officially become a “super-aged” society, with people aged over 60 accounting for 28.55% of the population — about 18.5 million people — rising sharply from 13.8 million in 2025. The shift represents one of the most significant structural transformations facing Thailand over the next decade.

The ageing transition is already well underway. As of May 2025, Thailand’s population stood at 64.88 million, including 13.83 million senior citizens, or 21.31% of the total.

Most elderly Thais remain relatively young retirees. More than half — around 7.75 million people — are aged between 60 and 69, while another 4.17 million fall within the 70-79 age group.

At the same time, life expectancy continues to rise, with more than 322,000 people aged over 90 and nearly 41,000 centenarians.

These gains reflect improvements in healthcare and living standards, but they also underscore the mounting economic and social pressures associated with longer lifespans.