Thailand will officially enter the rainy season on Friday, May 15, but with less rain than usual in the forecast, the Meteorological Department announced on Thursday.
The season’s official start is dependent on three conditions: continuing rain over 60% or more of upper Thailand, lower-level winds shifting to southwesterly and upper-altitude winds turning to easterly, director-general Sukanyanee Yawinchan said.
This year, the wet season across upper Thailand will continue until around mid-October, while the eastern parts of the South will see rain until December, she said.
Overall, rainfall is expected to be about 10% lower than the seasonal average.
Until mid-June, rainfall is expected to steadily increase in frequency, especially in the East and western parts of the South.
From the end of June into July, rain frequency and intensity will drop, causing a dry spell for a while before resuming in August and September. The latter period should be watched for torrential rain, flash floods, forest runoff and rivers overflowing.
Ms Sukanyanee said the department was monitoring closely the El Nino climate pattern, which currently is still considered to be in neutral condition. However, there is a possibility of a stronger El Nino in the second half of the year, she said.
Scientists have warned of a growing risk of a Super El Nino in the second half of the year, with Southeast Asia expected to be hit particularly hard by dry conditions.
One or two tropical storms are expected to approach the country during August and September, which will mainly affect the North and Northeast.
A monitoring centre for heavy rain and strong winds in the Andaman Sea has also been opened, Ms Sukanyanee said.
