The Constitutional Court will decide on Friday the fate of suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn "Ung Ing" Shinawatra in a case involving a leaked audio recording of her conversation with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen.
Even if the verdict goes in her favour, the political landscape has already shifted, leaving her premiership facing formidable obstacles.
The most pressing challenge is a crisis of trust. Many Thais remain unsettled by remarks attributed to her in the audio clip, in which the Thai military was cast as an adversary. The controversy continues to erode confidence in her leadership and poses a threat that could destabilise her government.
This is borne out by a recent Nida Poll, which shows public approval of the Pheu Thai-led government sliding steadily since the release of the clip. Should she survive the legal challenge, Ms Paetongtarn, daughter of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is expected to face the opposition's fierce censure debate aimed at undermining her administration.
At the same time, mounting economic headwinds, from skyrocketing household debt to sluggish growth, pose an equally potent threat to the stability of her government.
The case arose after the audio clip was made public and a group of senators submitted a petition to the Senate Speaker, requesting that the matter be referred to the Constitutional Court. Ms Paetongtarn is accused of breaching the standards required of ministers under Section 160 of the charter, which stipulates that a minister must not engage in a serious violation of ethical standards.
The court was asked to rule whether her conversation with Hun Sen constituted a serious breach of ethical standards expected of a prime minister. If the court finds a serious breach, this could render her ineligible to continue in office, effectively bringing her premiership to an end.
Stithorn Thananithichot, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, said Ms Paetongtarn and her team appear confident she will not be removed.
If she survives, she is likely to remain in office for another four months before dissolving the House of Representatives to call a general election. This could be a short window of opportunity to push key policies through to claim concrete achievements, Mr Stithorn said.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Institute of Political and Policy Analysis, said Ms Paetongtarn is unlikely to survive the ruling. As for whether Chaikasem Nitisiri, another Pheu Thai candidate for prime minister, might succeed her, that will depend on the relative strength of Pheu Thai compared to the opposition Bhumjaithai Party and People's Party.
Yutthaporn Issarachai, a lecturer at the faculty of political science of Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, said terms such as "serious ethical misconduct" lack precise definitions and are ultimately subject to the Constitutional Court's interpretation.
If the court decides she lacks the necessary qualifications due to a serious breach of ethical standards, the entire cabinet would be deemed to have vacated office.
However, it would continue to function in a caretaker capacity until a new cabinet is formed, and Phumtham Wechayachai would resume his role as caretaker prime minister.
The next step would be for the House to elect a new prime minister. Potential candidates include Mr Chaikasem from Pheu Thai; Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, a privy councillor and former premier; Pirapan Salirathavibhaga of the United Thai Nation Party; Jurin Laksanawisit of the Democrat Party and Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party.
